An economic crisis closely followed the public health crisis of COVID-19. In order to support communities as they reopen and recover, we want to develop a sense of the communities sustaining the hardest economic losses in order to confidently direct local investments where they might do the most good while also advocating for grants for Opportunity Zone areas.
Today, we have an anecdotal sense of which communities are hardest hit, but we want to find evidence to support or refute our hypotheses. We have access to economic data at the county level, but we want to develop more granular insights finding or deriving data for the zip code, or census tract, level to help measure the local economic impact of COVID-19.
Our hypothesis is that we can aggregate current data and, if needed, collect new data in order to develop a better understanding of the local economic impact.
Business formation, business open/closed status, payments processing, foreclosures, bankruptcy, employment/unemployment.
Though this project focuses on Riverside County, we will watch out for opportunities to forge partnerships to scale this work, extend it to other communities, and build upon the similar work of others in order to have the highest impact and leverage.
Though all communities in the United States (and also nationwide) are affected economically by COVID-19, the focus of this phase of work is Riverside County, California.
Riverside County is a county located in the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. As of the 2010 census, the population was 2,189,641, making it the fourth-most populous county in California and the 10th-most populous in the United States. The name was derived from the city of Riverside, which is the county seat. (Wikipedia)
Additional details
- The county has 49 census tracts (out of approximately 1,000 nationwide).
- Amazon is a big local employer, providing approximately 50% of local jobs. Most other jobs are with smaller companies.
Opportunity Zones are designated low-income census tracts where new investments, under certain conditions, may be eligible for preferential tax treatment. These zones, created by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, are designed to spur economic development and job creation in distressed communities throughout the country and U.S. possessions by providing tax benefits to investors who invest eligible capital into these communities. Taxpayers may defer tax on eligible capital gains by making an appropriate investment in a Qualified Opportunity Fund and meeting other requirements. (IRS.gov)
- Small businesses shed more than 11 million jobs in April – making up more than half of the 20 million lost in the private sector last month, according to payments processor ADP. (Axios)
- A study by top academic researchers projects that more than 100,000 small businesses have closed permanently since late March, with at least 2% of all American small businesses now gone. (The Washington Post)
- Stacy Cumberbatch – Executive Fellow In Residence with Accelerator for America, the Riverside County Economic Development Agency, and the University of California Riverside Center for Social Innovation
- Andrew Suprenant – Product Manager, U.S. Digital Response
- Alex Merryman – Data Scientist, U.S. Digital Response
- Riverside County Economic Development Agency
- State of California
- Investors wanting to vet opportunities to deploy capital to local community.
- Other communities facing similar problems.
- Other entities addressing the same or similar issues (e.g. Opportunity Insights, Beeck Center for Social Impact and Innovation).
This project began in May 2020, and our current plan is to work for three months (through September 2020) and deliver regularly, with a key check in with project stakeholders in August.
Though we are focused on the goals of this project, the details are subject to change.